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安倍大选获胜，有人欢喜有人愁，但对日本央行行长黑田东彦来说，这无疑是个好消息，因为他在这个位置上再干五年的希望又大了几分。可惜对于央行一再延期的2%通胀目标，却没能增加什么胜算……

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The Bank of Japan---Dig deeper

日本银行——我行依旧

The inflation target is again postponed, but policy is unchanged

通胀目标再次推迟，但是政策不变

【1】SEVENTH time lucky? Minutes of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) policy meeting in July, published on September 26th, showed that the central bank had, for the sixth time since 2013, pushed back the date at which it expected prices to meet its 2% inflation target—to thefiscal yearending in March 2020.

inflation：[ɪnˈfleʃən] n.通货膨胀；膨胀；夸张；自命不凡

fiscal year：n.<美>财政年度，会计年度

第七次好运？9月26日公布的日本央行七月政策会议纪要显示，央行会将预期价格达到2%通胀目标的日期推迟至2020年3月截止的财政年度，这是自2013年以来央行第六次推迟通胀目标日期。

［2］Four-and-a-half years since Haruhiko Kuroda took office as governor and embarked on an unprecedented experiment in quantitative easing(QE), the bank is still far from its goal. It has sweptup 40% of Japanese government bonds and a whopping 71% of exchange-traded funds. The bank’s balance sheethas tripled. It is now roughly the size of the American Federal Reserve’s.

embark：[ɪmˈbɑ:k] v.上飞机，上船；着手，从事

unprecedented：[ʌnˈprɛsɪˌdɛntɪd] adj.空前的；前所未有的，无前例的；无比的；新奇的，崭新的

Our school faced unprecedented difficulties.

我们学校碰到了前所未有的困难。

Quantitative easing：量化宽松

sweep：[swip] vt.扫除；打扫，清理；彻底搜索；掠过 vi.打扫；扫过；蜿蜒；大范围伸展

She is sweeping the floor.

她正在扫地。

whopping：[ˈwɑ:pɪŋ] adj.巨大的，庞大的 adv.非常地，异常地 v.打；抽出；打败；征服

They all whopping drunk.

他们都醉得很厉害。

balance sheet：n.资产负债表;财务状况表

黑田东彦就任央行行长并采取前所未有的量化宽松实验，距今已有四年半了，但是日本银行与其目标仍有很大的差距。央行已经持有40%的日本国债，以及71%的交易型开放式指数基金。该行的资产负债表扩大了三倍。几乎达到了美国联邦储备银行的规模。

［3］Yet, despite his apparent failure, and de- spite a snap general election, Mr Kuroda may yet stay for another five years when his term runs out next April. If not, most of his likely successors are signed up to the same reflationary policy. At least one member of the bank’s board gave warning at its most recent policy meeting on September 20th-21st that the measures it has taken are insufficient to stoke the desired inflation. These include keeping short-term interest rates negative, at about -0.1%, and ten-year government-bond yields at around zero. Soon, however, debate might turn to the feasibility of the 2% target.

snap：[snæp] adj. 突然的；匆忙的 v. 劈啪作响；崩塌；砰然关上 n. 啪嗒声；快照

successor：[sək'sesər] n. 接班人；继任人

reflationary policy：通货再膨胀政策

insufficient：[ˌɪnsəˈfɪʃənt] adj.不足的，不够的

stoke：[stoʊk]v.给…添加（燃料）；煽动；激起；促使…的增加

debate：[dɪ'beɪt] n. 辩论；讨论 v. 争论；思考；辩论

feasibility：[ˌfizəˈbɪlətɪ] n.可行性；可能性；现实性

They doubted of the feasibility of the project.

他们怀疑这个计划的可行性。

然而，尽管显而易见的失败，以及这次仓促的大选带来的不利，黑田东彦仍有可能在明年五月其任期到期后再留任五年。如果不能，他的大部分可能继任者也都签署了同样的通货再膨胀政策。在最新的9月20-21日政策会议上，至少有一位该银行董事会成员提出了警告：日本央行采取的措施不足以实现其预期的通胀。这些措施包括：维持短期利率在大致-0.1%的水平，并使得十年期政府债券收益率几乎为零。然而很快的，争论转向了通胀2%这个目标的可行性。

［4］Many countries would be happy to have Japan’s problems, says Masamichi Adachi of JPMorgan Securities: full employment,soaring corporateprofits and the third-longest economic expansion since the Second World War. But with government reforms faltering, the BOJ’s role as custodian of “Abenomics” (the policies of the prime minister, Shinzo Abe) seems assured. A labour crunch may at last be working where government badgering of Japanese companies to pay workers more has failed. In a speech this week, Mr Kuroda pointed to rising wages as a reason to hope inflation will pick up. Firms, he said, have been absorbing the cost to keep prices low, but will not be able to do so for ever.

soar：[sɔːr] vi. 翱翔；高飞；猛增；高涨；高耸n. 翱翔；高飞

corporate：['kɔːrpərət] adj. 法人的；公司的；社团的；共同的；全体的

falter：[ˈfɔ:ltə(r)]vi.蹒跚；（嗓音）颤抖；支吾其词；摇晃 n.颤抖；支吾，结巴；踌躇，不稳

custodian：[kʌˈstoʊdiən] n.保管人；监护人；管理人；看门人

crunch：[krʌntʃ] n. 嘎吱声；艰难局面；关键时刻 v. 发出碎裂声；嘎吱嘎吱地咀嚼；嘎喳嘎喳地碾过

badger：[ˈbædʒə(r)] v.不断督促；不断催促；纠缠

摩根大通证券的正道安达说：许多国家会有日本这样的“烦恼”会很开心——充分就业、企业利润飙升，第二次世界大战后第三长的经济扩张。但是随着政府改革蹒跚不前，央行似乎确定会当起安倍经济学（首相安倍晋三的政策）守护者的角色。当日本政府困扰于敦促公司给员工加薪无果时，劳动力短缺可能最终起到了一定作用。在本周的一次演讲中，黑田东彦指出，工资上涨是对通胀会上升抱有希望的一个理由。他说，企业一直在吸收成本以降低价格，但不能永远这么干。

［5］Not all share his optimism. Monetary easingis failing in one of its aims, says Sayuri Shirai, a former BOJ board member: to foster risk-taking corporate behaviour. Instead, the amount of cash hoarded by Japan’s companies has grown by about ¥50trn ($443bn) over the past five years and exceeds ¥210trn, a record.

optimism：[ˈɑ:ptɪmɪzəm] n.乐观;乐观主义

Monetary easing：货币宽松；缓和货币政策

foster：['fɔːstər] vt. 领养；培养；促进；鼓励；抱有（希望等） adj. 收养的

hoard：[hɔ:rd] n.积聚，囤积；密窖；贮藏处 v.积聚；秘藏；积蓄，贮藏

并非所有人都赞同他的乐观主义。前日本央行董事会成员白井早由里表示，货币宽松无法达成鼓励企业采取冒险的经营行为这个目标。相反，在过去的五年中，日本企业的现金囤积量大约增长了50万亿日元（折合美元4330亿），总量超过210万亿，打破了记录。

［6］ With sluggishinvestment and demand, Mr Kuroda’s monetary blitzkrieg will continue. The risk, says Ms Shirai, is that monetary policy has become a crutch for the entire economy. Leaning on the central bank, some companies are reducing efforts to boost productivity and improve governance, she says. And, by becoming the largest shareholder in several companies, the bank is distorting the pricing function of the market, adds Nicholas Benes, of the Board Director Training Institute of Japan.

sluggish：[ˈslʌɡɪʃ] adj.行动迟缓的，反应慢的；不机警的；懒散的，不活泼的；无精打采的

blitzkrieg：[ˈblɪtsˌkriɡ] n.闪电战，闪击战，（尤指）猛烈的空袭

crutch：[krʌtʃ] n. 拐杖；支柱 v. 支撑

lean：[liːn] v. 倾斜；倾向；依靠；倚；屈身 adj. 瘦的；贫乏的；无脂肪的 n. 瘦肉；倾斜，倾向

boost：[buːst] v. 提高；增加；鼓励；举起；为...做宣传 n. 增加；推进；鼓励

governance：['ɡʌvərnəns] n. 统治；支配；管理

distort：[dɪˈstɔ:rt] v. 曲解；歪曲，扭曲；使变形

在低迷的投资和需求之下，黑田东彦的货币闪电战会继续进行。白井女士认为，风险在于货币政策已经成为整个经济的支柱。她说，一些公司依靠着央行，就不再努力去提高生产力、改进管理了。同时，日本董事培训学院的尼古拉斯•本尼斯补充道，随着银行成为几家公司最大的股东，它正在扭曲市场的定价功能。

［7］ Mr Kuroda stunned the markets with QE in 2013 and has continued to surprise since with a string of policy innovations. But nobody, says Mr Adachi, can see when the BOJ will start to reduce its asset purchases, let alone trim its balance sheet. Perhaps never. For all the problems its easy-money policy brings, many think it more costly to ditchit than to keep on digging.

stun：[stʌn] v.击晕，使昏厥；使震聋；使目瞪口呆；使大吃一惊 n.打击，刺激

trim：[trɪm] v. 修剪；削减；装饰；调整帆以适应风向 adj. 整洁的；匀称的 n. 修剪；整齐；装饰

I'd just like a trim and don't make it too short.

只需要修剪一下，不要修得太短。

ditch：[dɪtʃ] n. 沟渠；壕沟 v. 丢弃；坠入沟中；飞机（在海上）迫降；挖渠；飞机紧急降落

黑田东彦2013年的量化宽松政策震惊了市场，之后他又推出了一系列让人意外的政策创新。安达先生说：但是没有人能知道日本央行什么时候会开始缩减资产购买规模，更不用说削减其资产负债表了。许多人认为，对于宽松货币政策带来的所有问题，填坑的成本比挖坑的成本大得多。

追求通胀听起来似乎有些奇怪，但是联系到日本近20年的通缩状态，经济低迷，也许就可以理解了。他们如此需要良性的通胀，需要刺激消费促进经济发展。

但是这宽松的政策实行了四年半，日本的通胀依然只有0.7%，距离其目标还是很遥远，背后的原因众说纷纭，大部分人都无法像黑田行长那么乐观。但是无论这种政策有没有效果，如文中所述，日本央行接下来大概率会维持宽松不变，我们继续观察结果吧。

http://www.economist.com

编排 / 校对：Angel

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